Belarusian Government plans to attract 6 billion dollars for the development of energy sector

The draft state program of development of the Belarusian energy system until 2015 will be reviewed by the Council of Ministers on the 5th of October. In the next five years energy generating sources and power grid will be modernized, natural gas will be replaced with coal, tariff policy will be improved and subsidies will be abolished. As a result, it is expected that by the end of 2015 the country will put 3,203 MW of new and withdraw 2351 MW of inefficient capacity. The depreciation of fixed assets of the Belarusian energy system is expected to decline to 43%. For comparison, five years ago it was above 51%, but by the end of 2010 should drop to 48%, though a normal, safe level of wear starts from 45%.

Program Developers, Ministry of Energy and a number of energy institutions of the country, estimated that the annual fuel savings through the exploitation of new capacity already in 2016 compared to 2009 will be 1 million 86 thousand tons of fuel. And the use of coal (1 million 140 thousand tons of equivalent fuel) and local energy resources (406 thousand tons of equivalent fuel) override 1.4 billion cubic meters.  of gas in 2016.

Moreover, new capacity will enable Belarus to export electricity to the West. Skeptically evaluating export opportunities in the direction of Ukraine and the Kaliningrad region, the developers believe in establishment of communications between Polish and Belarusian energy systems through the insertion of DC up to 500 MW. Through this line, Belarus is estimated to be able to export up to 3 billion kW • h per year. Among the buyers may appear, and Lithuania, if it has any problems with the construction of Visaginas nuclear power plant.

By 2015 Belarus will consume 39.2-39.5 billion kW • h per year and the maximum power consumption will be 6800-6900 MW. In this case, the installed capacity of power will increase to 1000 MW, from 8592.5 to 9594.2 MW. This should occur mainly at the expense of building Zelvenskii IES (2015) with two power units on coal of the estimated capacity of 920 MW and the commissioning of new power capacity at Minsk CHP-5 (2011), Lukoml (2015 ) and Bereza power plant (2014) of 400 MW each.

It isn’t said in the program about the Belarusian nuclear power plant at all because the government program will last until 2015 and the forecast deadline entering the first nuclear power plant is 2016.

But without mention of nuclear power engineering plans are not too realistic, in consideration of 6.03 billion dollars that they require. Equity organizations, budget and credit resources are just over 4.76 billion dollars, direct investment makes 1.26 billion dollars. In addition, in the next five years Belarus is to return the previously taken (and those that only plan to take) loans amounting to 2.58 billion dollars. Altogether, Belenergo needs to find the approximately 8.8 billion dollars, that is not very realistic in current conditions.

According to